Local climate targets

Community emissions for 540 California cities and unincorporated counties, against an equal share of the state’s 2030 and 2045 targets. No account, no sign-in.

What this is not. These targets are analytical, not legal limits: CARB assigns no local targets. This tracks emissions and can’t prove local action. The inventories are modeled from county, state and federal data, so trends mostly reflect grid, vehicle-fleet and employment changes rather than city programs.

Loading target data…

How the targets were set

CARB’s 431 MMT limit covers the whole economy, including refineries, cement and agriculture. These inventories don’t, so the default baseline starts from the 1990 emissions of the sectors they count: 342 MMT, or 79% of the limit. That in-scope level is also the in-scope 2020 limit, because AB 32 set the 2020 limit at the 1990 level. The state’s percentage cuts then carry over directly: the path runs straight from each baseline in 2020 to 40% below it in 2030 (SB 32) and 85% below it in 2045 (AB 1279).

2020 limit (default): each place’s share of the in-scope limit, based on 2019 emissions. This asks everyone for the same proportional cut and doesn’t penalize a place for doing more than required by 2020. It isn’t that place’s actual 1990 level, which isn’t known.
2020 emissions: what a place emitted in 2020 if it hit its limit, otherwise the limit. 2020 was a COVID low, so this is the strictest comparison.
Population: the same allowance for every resident. Job centers look far over target, and bedroom communities can look finished.

What the statuses mean

Met 2030 target: 2024 emissions are at or below the 2030 target.
On pace: the 2019–2024 yearly change matches or beats the change needed from 2024 to 2030.
Below path, pace too slow: under the path in 2024, but falling too slowly.
Above path, pace too slow: over the path in 2024 and falling too slowly.
Close call: the distance from the path is within the inventory’s uncertainty range.

Limits of this comparison

The default limit is shared out by 2019 emissions, so a place that cut deeply before 2019 starts with a smaller limit. County energy records suggest real 1990 levels differ widely.
Industrial gas is placed at reporting plants, and part of that placement is estimated. Industrial electricity still follows manufacturing jobs, which can include headquarters.
The pace test uses two endpoints, so a shift in a small city’s modeled job share can swing it. Check a large change before citing it.
Electricity is location-based, so choosing a cleaner power supplier isn’t credited. 2024 uses the 2023 grid factor and held-forward 2023 job data.
The 1990 sector values use older warming factors and are scaled as a group. Landfill emissions are counted when waste is disposed, about 14 MMT now against 6.3 MMT in the 1990 base, which makes targets somewhat stricter.
San Francisco’s unincorporated remainder has no residents and about 2 tons of emissions, so it isn’t rated.

Looking for a full inventory? Jurisdiction baselines carry the sector detail. Sources: CARB 2020 limit and 2007 staff report, CEC QFER, SB 32, AB 1279, CA GHG Inventory (USCP v1.2, IPCC AR4 GWPs).